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Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F°
767980828686899089888380
Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F°
656866697376797874757368
Monthly Rainfall - Inches
3.43.22.2.964.01.23.05.51.34.35.43.1
Number of Rain Days
643352474687

Currently: Partly Cloudy: 83F
Currently in Dunmore Town, BS: 83 °F and Partly Cloudy

8/18/2017 Forecast
High: 88 F Low: 81 F A thunderstorm in the area

8/19/2017 Forecast
High: 87 F Low: 83 F Cloudy with a thunderstorm

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Real Time GOES Imagery - Caribbean:

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Visible, Water Vapor, Infrared Ch. 4, RGB

What exactly is a floater? A floater is a set of images from the GOES East or West satellite of a given area that can change location area from day to day. Simply put, the location of the image 'floats' around the world during different events. For example, if a hurricane is forming in the Atlantic then one of the floaters would most likely be positioned over the storm. If there are no major storms then a Floater may be positioned over an active volcano. With the use of 'Floaters' it is possible to give people a more varied set of imagery from day to day.

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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics

Tropical Storm Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 08:47:34 GMT

Tropical Storm Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 09:23:25 GMT

Posted on 18 August 2017 | 3:47 am

Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017


000
WTNT44 KNHC 180842
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

Harvey's cloud pattern has changed very little in organization
during the past several hours. The low-level center is difficult to
find even using the 1-min images from GOES 16, but it appears to
be located on the eastern edge of the convection due to the
prevailing easterly shear. Dvorak estimates from both TAFB
and SAB support keeping the intensity at 35 kt. Another Air
Force plane will be investigating Harvey at sunrise.

The moderate easterly shear affecting the cyclone is expected to
increase a little during the next day or so, and this factor should
not allow significant strengthening. Once the cyclone reaches the
western Caribbean Sea in 3 or 4 days, an environment of lower shear
and high moisture is forecast to prevail, and Harvey should then
gather some strength. The cyclone could be near hurricane strength
by the time it is approaching Central America or the Yucatan
peninsula. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and
is very close to the intensity consensus. The GFS and the ECMWF
global models are just a little more enthusiastic in keeping the
cyclone from dissipating in this last run, but who knows what they
might forecast the next time.

Harvey has not changed in track or speed, and it is still moving
toward the west or 270 degrees at 16 kt. The cyclone is well
embedded within the easterlies south of a persistent subtropical
ridge. This steering pattern will keep Harvey trapped in the
Caribbean Sea while moving westward for the next few days. The
track forecast is similar to the one issued by my predecessor and it
follows closely the multi-model consensus. The guidance envelope is
quite tight and is bounded by the northernmost ECMWF and the GFS to
the south.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 13.1N  59.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 13.2N  61.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 13.5N  65.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 13.9N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 14.1N  72.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 15.0N  80.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 16.5N  86.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  23/0600Z 17.5N  90.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

Posted on 18 August 2017 | 3:42 am

Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017


000
WTNT24 KNHC 180841
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
0900 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  59.1W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  59.1W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  58.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.2N  61.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.5N  65.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N  68.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.1N  72.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.0N  80.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N  86.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.5N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N  59.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Posted on 18 August 2017 | 3:41 am

Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017


000
FONT14 KNHC 180841
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
0900 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  13(27)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   7(32)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   X(20)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   1(12)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOMINICA       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34 35   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34 20   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
BARBADOS       34 18   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Posted on 18 August 2017 | 3:41 am

Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017


000
WTNT34 KNHC 180841
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...HARVEY DRENCHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 59.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 59.1 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued
westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Harvey should
move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea
later today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area later today.

RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique
southward to Grenada.   These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Posted on 18 August 2017 | 3:41 am

Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

...HARVEY DRENCHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 18 the center of Harvey was located near 13.1, -59.1 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Posted on 18 August 2017 | 3:41 am

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 180533
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located just east of the Windward Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands
continues to show signs of organization. While this system
does not yet appear to have a closed circulation, only a slight
increase in organization could lead to the formation of a tropical
depression before upper-level winds become less favorable for
development early next week. The low is expected to move
west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and
interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few
hundred miles west and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for
some development early next week while the system moves west-
northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Posted on 18 August 2017 | 12:33 am

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