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Harbour Island Weather

Average Weather Information

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F°
767980828686899089888380
Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F°
656866697376797874757368
Monthly Rainfall - Inches
3.43.22.2.964.01.23.05.51.34.35.43.1
Number of Rain Days
643352474687

Currently: Mostly Clear: 80F
Currently in Dunmore Town, BS: 80 °F and Mostly Clear

9/22/2020 Forecast
High: 84 F Low: 80 F Rain and drizzle in the p.m.

9/23/2020 Forecast
High: 85 F Low: 81 F A couple of showers

Harbour Island Accuweather 25 Day Forecast

Intellicast Caribbean Radar Map

Real Time GOES Imagery - Definitive Weather Satellite Views of the Bahamas and Caribbean:

GOES-East - Regional sector view: Caribbean

GOES-East Image Viewer

Sea Surface Temperature

Space, Science & Engineering's Interactive Geostationary Real Time Satellite Images


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Beta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Tropical Storm Beta Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 09:31:00 GMT

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 4:31 am

Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA

Issued at 419 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 4:19 am

Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX

Issued at 418 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 4:19 am

Local Statement for Austin / San Antonio, TX

Issued at 411 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 4:11 am

Local Statement for Corpus Christi, TX

Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 4:09 am

Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics

Tropical Storm Paulette 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 09:06:04 GMT

Tropical Storm Paulette 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 09:25:22 GMT

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 4:06 am

Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 41

Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020


000
WTNT41 KNHC 220900
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020
 
The tops of Paulette's convective clouds have been warming since 
the previous advisory, and first-light visible images show that a 
swirl of low- to mid-level clouds is about all that is left.  The 
estimated maximum winds remain 50 kt based on last evening's ASCAT 
pass, but that value could be generous given the degraded 
convective structure.  New scatterometer passes this morning should 
give us a better idea of how the winds have changed.  Moderate to 
strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are 
expected to induce weakening over the next couple of days, and 
Paulette is expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours.  If 
convection does not redevelop later today, the transition to a 
post-tropical cyclone would likely occur before 48 hours.  The 
remnant low is expected to dissipate by day 5.

Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast, or 065/15 kt.  This 
motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours.  After that 
time, there is significant model divergence, with several models 
(such as the GFS) taking Paulette to the Iberian Peninsula while 
others (such as the ECMWF) stop it on a dime and turn it 
westward.  The latter solution appears more realistic since a 
shallow convection-less low would be steered toward the west by 
ridging to the north.  The NHC forecast is a blend of the previous 
interpolated official forecast and the HCCA consensus aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 34.7N  23.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 35.1N  21.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 35.4N  19.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 35.8N  17.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 35.6N  16.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  24/1800Z 34.9N  16.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z 34.3N  17.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z 33.3N  21.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 4:00 am

Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 41

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020


000
WTNT21 KNHC 220859
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  23.7W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  70SE  60SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE 120SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  23.7W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N  24.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 35.1N  21.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  60SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 35.4N  19.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.8N  17.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.6N  16.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 34.9N  16.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 34.3N  17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 33.3N  21.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N  23.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:59 am

Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020


000
FONT11 KNHC 220859
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  41         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172020               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:59 am

Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 41

Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020


000
WTNT31 KNHC 220858
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020
 
...PAULETTE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
AZORES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 23.7W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 23.7 West.  Paulette is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h).  An east or 
east-northeast motion at a slower forward speed is expected through 
Wednesday.  Paulette is then expected to turn southward and 
southwestward Wednesday night and Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Paulette 
is expected to become post-tropical by Wednesday night or Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:58 am

Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT1/AL172020)

...PAULETTE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES... As of 9:00 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 the center of Paulette was located near 34.7, -23.7 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:58 am

Tropical Storm Beta Graphics

Tropical Storm Beta 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 08:58:11 GMT

Tropical Storm Beta 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 09:40:50 GMT

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:58 am

Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020


949 
WTNT42 KNHC 220857
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020
 
Beta's center has continued to move farther inland since making
landfall on the southern end of the Matagorda Peninsula around 10
PM CDT last evening.  There have not been any surface observations
of sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and an earlier ASCAT pass
indicated that winds over the water had decreased to near 35 kt.
That is Beta's estimated intensity at the moment, with the
assumption that those winds are still occurring somewhere over
water or within the deep convection near the center.
 
Beta has been moving northwestward, or 315/3 kt.  Steering currents
around the storm are now collapsing, and Beta is expected to
meander during the next 12-24 hours.  By this time tomorrow,
however, a mid-level trough over west Texas is forecast to begin
moving eastward and should scoop Beta up, causing the storm to move
toward the east-northeast near or just inland of the upper Texas
coast through 36 hours.  After that time, Beta is expected to turn
northeastward, moving farther inland across Louisiana and
Mississippi before dissipating in about 4 days.  Because Beta has
moved a little farther inland than expected, much of the model
trackers have shifted northward, and now only the UKMET and its
ensemble mean show Beta's center re-emerging over the extreme
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The new NHC track forecast has been
adjusted northward accordingly and generally lies between the HCCA
aid and the TVCN multi-model consensus.
 
Now that Beta's center may not move back out over the Gulf, the
intensity guidance indicates that the cyclone will gradually weaken
during the next few days.  However, since a part of the circulation
will remain over water and the system could still produce deep
convection, the NHC forecast shows Beta maintaining tropical storm
status for another 12 hours or so (a scenario which is above all
of the guidance).  Beta should weaken to a tropical depression in
about 24 hours, and it is expected to become a remnant low in 2-3
days when vertical shear is expected to be well over 30 kt.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will
continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion
of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from
the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and
minor river flooding is likely. Periods of rainfall will continue
into the ArkLaTex region and spread east into the Lower Mississippi
Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week.
Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible.
 
2. Storm surge flooding will continue throughout the morning, around
the times of high tide along portions of the Texas coast within the
storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should continue
to follow advice of local officials.
 
3. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue near portions of the
Texas coast within the warning area today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 28.8N  96.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  22/1800Z 28.8N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/0600Z 29.1N  95.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/1800Z 29.8N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/0600Z 30.8N  92.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  24/1800Z 32.1N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z 33.6N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:57 am

Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Tropical Storm Beta Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 08:57:47 GMT

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:57 am

Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020


000
FONT12 KNHC 220856
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   3(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  1   3( 4)   9(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   4( 4)  11(15)   2(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  5  16(21)   9(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
HOUSTON TX     34 17  12(29)   3(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 32  12(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  3   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  1   9(10)  10(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MATAGORDA TX   50  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34 52  10(62)   X(62)   X(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 
ROCKPORT TX    34 21   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:56 am

Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 19

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020


000
WTNT32 KNHC 220856
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020
 
...BETA EXPECTED TO STALL INLAND OVER TEXAS TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TEXAS COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 96.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued east of Sabine
Pass.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 96.7 West.  Beta is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).  Beta is expected
to stall inland over Texas today but will then begin to move slowly
toward the east-northeast tonight.  An east-northeast to northeast
motion with increasing forward speed is expected Wednesday through
Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland
over southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana
and Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, but Beta is likely to
begin weakening by tonight.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.  A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust
to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently reported at Victoria, Texas.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Sargent, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San
Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3
ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
portions of the tropical storm warning area today.
 
RAINFALL: For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall
of 6 to 12 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is
expected. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will
continue today. Minor river flooding is likely.
 
Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the
ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through
the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well
as isolated minor river flooding.
 
TORNADOES:  A tornado or two could occur today near the upper Texas
and southwestern Louisiana coasts.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front
over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of
Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:56 am

Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 19

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020


000
WTNT22 KNHC 220856
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF SABINE
PASS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TEXAS TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL 
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER 
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  96.7W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  96.7W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  96.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.8N  96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.1N  95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N  94.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.8N  92.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.1N  90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.6N  89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N  96.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:56 am

Hurricane Teddy Graphics

Hurricane Teddy 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 08:53:09 GMT

Hurricane Teddy 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 09:33:23 GMT

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:53 am

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 40

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020


851 
WTNT45 KNHC 220850
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020
 
Recent satellite imagery shows that the central convection is 
diminishing, with a comma-like cloud pattern developing.  
The current intensity is held at 85 kt based on continuity from the 
earlier aircraft mission.  Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate Teddy later today which should provide a 
good estimate of the intensity.  Teddy is moving along the northern 
part of the Gulf Stream and should begin to move into cooler waters 
later today.  Therefore weakening is expected over the next 
couple of days.  However, baroclinic forcing should keep 
the cyclone at or near hurricane strength while it approaches 
Nova Scotia.  The official intensity forecast is above the model 
consensus to qualitatively account for baroclinic effects.  After
72 hours, or sooner, post-tropical Teddy should become absorbed or 
merge with a large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. 

Teddy has accelerated somewhat and is now moving north-northeastward 
near 24 kt.  The hurricane is moving on the eastern side of a 
mid-tropospheric cyclone centered off the northeastern U.S. coast.  
Teddy should continue its north-northwestward motion today and then 
turn north-northeastward as the mid-tropospheric cyclone shifts 
northeastward.  This will take post-tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia 
and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days.  The official 
forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus, or 
HFIP, and similar to the previous NHC track.

The wind field of Teddy should continue to expand today and 
tonight, and the extent of 12-ft seas is also growing.  See the 
Key Message regarding swells due to Teddy.


Key Messages:
 
1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late today through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain,
and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings
are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and
Newfoundland.
 
2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy
between today and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 38.4N  62.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 40.9N  63.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 43.9N  62.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 47.5N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/0600Z 52.0N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  24/1800Z 57.0N  53.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/0600Z 61.0N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:51 am

Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020


000
FONT15 KNHC 220850
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  40                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   2( 2)  27(29)   6(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   5( 5)  47(52)   9(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X  14(14)  56(70)   7(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)  27(27)   7(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  3  59(62)  27(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   7( 7)  37(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X  40(40)  44(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   2( 2)  33(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34 44  32(76)   6(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X  13(13)   7(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
HALIFAX NS     34 27  58(85)   3(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
HALIFAX NS     50  X  40(40)   7(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
HALIFAX NS     64  X  11(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34 15  25(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X  16(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  2  11(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  4  14(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:51 am

Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 40

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020


000
WTNT35 KNHC 220850
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020
 
...TEDDY HEADED FOR ATLANTIC CANADA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 62.4W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
* Prince Edward Island
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.  Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required on Tuesday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 62.4 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday,
and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday, 
Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near 
and over Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions
could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia.  Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:50 am

Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

...TEDDY HEADED FOR ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 22 the center of Teddy was located near 38.4, -62.4 with movement NNW at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:50 am

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 40

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020


000
WTNT25 KNHC 220850
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA
* NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED ON TUESDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N  62.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  24 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..720NE 480SE 660SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N  62.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N  62.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N  63.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 180NW.
34 KT...400NE 320SE 250SW 250NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 43.9N  62.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...320NE 290SE 250SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 47.5N  60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 210SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 52.0N  57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 190SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 57.0N  53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 190SW 250NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 61.0N  52.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 200SW 250NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N  62.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 3:50 am

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 220523
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Beta, located over the Texas coast, on Hurricane Teddy,
located about 600 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and has
re-initiated advisories on regenerated Tropical Storm Paulette,
located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Azores.

Showers and thunderstorms extending from the Bahamas westward
through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a frontal system. This system is
forecast to move slowly southward over Cuba during the next couple
of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday.
Environmental conditions could be marginally conducive for some
slight development over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this
week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Paulette are issued under WMO header WTNT31
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on
Paulette are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS
header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Posted on 22 September 2020 | 12:23 am

Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)

...BETA EXPECTED TO STALL INLAND OVER TEXAS TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 the center of Beta was located near 28.8, -96.7 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Posted on 21 September 2020 | 11:01 pm

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