Aerial view of Harbour Island Bahamas weather.

Weather Forecast for Harbour Island

Current conditions, average weather and storm reports.

What is the weather forecast for Harbour Island?

Currently: Showers: 82F
Currently in Dunmore Town, BS: 82 °F and Showers

9/26/2022 Forecast
High: 88 F Low: 79 F Breezy with a t-storm or two

9/27/2022 Forecast
High: 90 F Low: 80 F Winds gradually subsiding

Harbour Island Accuweather 25 Day Forecast

What is Average Temperature for Harbour Island?

Monthly Weather Averages

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F°
76 79 80 82 86 86 89 90 89 88 83 80
Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F°
65 68 66 69 73 76 79 78 74 75 73 68
Monthly Rainfall - Inches
3.4 3.2 2.2 .96 4.0 1.2 3.0 5.5 1.3 4.3 5.4 3.1
Number of Rain Days
6 4 3 3 5 2 4 7 4 6 8 7

Weather Radar for Harbour Island

Wunderground Caribbean Radar Map

Real Time GOES Imagery - Definitive Weather Satellite Views of the Bahamas and Caribbean:

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Sea Surface Temperature

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Current Hurricane Reports for the Bahamas

National Hurricane Center

NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL

Issued at 1132 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:32 pm

Local Statement for Key West, FL

Issued at 1129 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:29 pm

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL

Issued at 1123 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:23 pm

Local Statement for Melbourne, FL

Issued at 1121 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:21 pm

Hurricane Ian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Hurricane Ian Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 27 Sep 2022 03:17:51 GMT

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:17 pm

Local Statement for Miami, FL

Issued at 1116 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:16 pm

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Issued at 1109 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 /1009 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022/

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:09 pm

Hurricane Ian Graphics

Hurricane Ian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Sep 2022 03:01:24 GMT

Hurricane Ian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Sep 2022 03:23:17 GMT

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:01 pm

Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022


000
WTNT44 KNHC 270258
TCDAT4
 
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
 
Ian continues to become better organized on satellite images with 
intense deep convection in its Central Dense Overcast and numerous 
surrounding banding features.  The overall cloud pattern is quite 
symmetric with well-defined upper-level outflow.  Observations from 
both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
central pressure is falling, and the intensity is increased to 90 
kt based on a recently reported 700 mb flight-level wind of 101 kt 
from the Air Force plane.  This is also in agreement with a 
subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB.
 
Aside from its relatively brief time passing over western Cuba, Ian 
will be moving over waters of very high oceanic heat content during 
the next couple of days.  The various Rapid Intensification (RI) 
indices show a significant probability of RI and this is reflected 
in the short-term official intensity forecast.  However, the SHIPS 
guidance, which is based on global model predictions, indicates that 
a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a substantially 
drying of low- to mid-level air will begin in 24-36 hours.  The NHC 
forecast, like the previous one, shows strengthening to Category 4 
intensity in a day or so, followed by gradual weakening.  However, 
Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the 
Florida west coast.  The official intensity forecast is near or 
above the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus 
predictions.

Ian continues its north-northwestward trek at about 340/11 kt.  The 
hurricane is expected to move north-northwestward to northward 
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, 
along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge.  After around 
36 hours, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, since there is 
considerable divergence of the track  models in the 2-3 day 
time frame.  The guidance also shows considerable slowing of the 
forward speed, due to a weakening of the steering currents, when 
Ian approaches the west coast of Florida.  This slower forward 
motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall 
impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida.  The official 
track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC 
prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods 
and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba 
beginning overnight and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind 
damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. 
Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
 
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been
issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay
region.  Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by
local officials.
 
3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical
storm conditions expected by late Tuesday.
 
4. Heavy rainfall will spread across western Cuba through Tuesday.  
This will likely produce instances of flash flooding and possible 
mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.  

5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South 
Florida Tuesday, spreading into central and northern Florida 
Wednesday and Thursday and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday, 
potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding. 
Considerable flooding, including significant, prolonged river 
flooding, is likely across Central Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 21.3N  83.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 22.8N  83.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 24.5N  83.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 26.1N  83.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 27.2N  83.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 27.9N  82.7W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/0000Z 28.6N  82.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 96H  01/0000Z 31.3N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  02/0000Z 35.0N  81.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 9:58 pm

Summary for Hurricane Ian (AT4/AL092022)

...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 the center of Ian was located near 21.3, -83.4 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 9:58 pm

Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022


000
FONT14 KNHC 270257
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   7(19)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   9(19)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
FLORENCE SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   9(21)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
COLUMBIA SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   8(22)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   9(25)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   9(26)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  19(29)   8(37)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)  20(36)   8(44)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   5(19)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  11(18)   8(26)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)  18(36)   8(44)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   4(16)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  34(46)  18(64)   4(68)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  15(28)   3(31)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   2(17)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  24(30)  17(47)   5(52)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)   2(16)
WAYCROSS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)  35(51)  16(67)   4(71)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  15(32)   3(35)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   9(17)   3(20)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  32(43)  17(60)   4(64)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)  10(26)   2(28)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   1(13)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  19(25)  36(61)  12(73)   2(75)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  24(30)   8(38)   2(40)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   2(17)   1(18)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  18(24)  36(60)  10(70)   2(72)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  26(30)   6(36)   1(37)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)   1(21)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  33(43)  30(73)   8(81)   2(83)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  31(44)   7(51)   1(52)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)   2(26)   X(26)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   2( 2)   9(11)  31(42)  27(69)   7(76)   1(77)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  28(40)   4(44)   1(45)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   2(23)   X(23)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   3( 3)  16(19)  27(46)  24(70)   6(76)   1(77)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  22(27)   5(32)   X(32)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   3(14)   X(14)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   3( 3)  16(19)  27(46)  24(70)   7(77)   X(77)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  22(27)   5(32)   1(33)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   3(14)   X(14)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   4( 4)  17(21)  25(46)  18(64)   5(69)   1(70)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)   4(21)   X(21)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  1   4( 5)  17(22)  16(38)  15(53)   3(56)   1(57)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  2   4( 6)  18(24)  11(35)  12(47)   3(50)   1(51)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MIAMI FL       34  2   2( 4)   9(13)  10(23)  12(35)   2(37)   1(38)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  2   3( 5)   8(13)   9(22)  11(33)   2(35)   X(35)
HOMESTEAD ARB  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MARATHON FL    34  4  29(33)  14(47)   3(50)   5(55)   2(57)   X(57)
MARATHON FL    50  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
KEY WEST FL    34 12  55(67)   8(75)   2(77)   2(79)   1(80)   1(81)
KEY WEST FL    50  1  12(13)   6(19)   2(21)   X(21)   1(22)   X(22)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NAPLES FL      34  2  34(36)  42(78)   7(85)   4(89)   1(90)   X(90)
NAPLES FL      50  X   3( 3)  26(29)  11(40)   5(45)   2(47)   X(47)
NAPLES FL      64  X   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  1   8( 9)  52(61)  13(74)   7(81)   2(83)   X(83)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   1( 1)  15(16)  18(34)   9(43)   2(45)   1(46)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 
VENICE FL      34  2  16(18)  62(80)  13(93)   3(96)   2(98)   X(98)
VENICE FL      50  X   1( 1)  40(41)  29(70)   8(78)   3(81)   X(81)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)  15(15)  27(42)   9(51)   3(54)   X(54)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   6( 6)  49(55)  28(83)  11(94)   2(96)   X(96)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)  15(15)  34(49)  19(68)   5(73)   1(74)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)  24(27)  18(45)   4(49)   X(49)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   3( 3)  20(23)  31(54)  23(77)   6(83)   1(84)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  25(44)   8(52)   2(54)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  19(26)   5(31)   1(32)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)  23(30)  11(41)   2(43)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   2(14)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  26(36)  10(46)   2(48)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)   2(18)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)  19(40)   8(48)   1(49)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)   2(17)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   2( 2)  12(14)  18(32)  20(52)   4(56)   1(57)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   6(21)   1(22)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)  17(29)   6(35)   2(37)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   6(10)   6(16)   1(17)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   3(15)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)  10(18)   4(22)   X(22)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   7(13)  13(26)   3(29)   1(30)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 24   2(26)   3(29)   1(30)   X(30)   1(31)   X(31)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HAVANA         34 80   9(89)   1(90)   X(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)
HAVANA         50 16  10(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)
HAVANA         64  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLE OF PINES  50 29   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   1(30)
ISLE OF PINES  64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 9:58 pm

Hurricane Ian Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022


000
WTNT34 KNHC 270257
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
 
...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY 
TUESDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN
IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Englewood
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River
* Bonita Beach to Englewood
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 83.4 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the north
with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday.  A turn
toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed
is forecast on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Ian
is expected to move near or over western Cuba overnight and early
Tuesday.  Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach
the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight 
or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba, and remain a major 
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). An amateur radio operator recently reported that an
automated weather station at Cayo Largo, Cuba measured a 
wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) during the last couple of hours.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft observations is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...5-10 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
* Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...
4-7 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early
Tuesday.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba beginning tonight. Destructive winds are possible where the
core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight
and Tuesday.
 
Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by 
Tuesday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch 
area beginning on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are 
possible in the watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle
Florida Keys on Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following
rainfall through Thursday:
 
* Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches;
these rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over  western Cuba.
* Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches
* Coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida: 4 to 6 inches with
local maxima up to 10 inches.
* Central West Florida: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to
20 inches.
* Northeast Florida: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 12
inches.
* Remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula:  4 to 8 inches.
 
Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding, and prolonged
significant river flooding is likely mid-to-late week across central
and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina.
Flash and urban flooding is also possible with rainfall across
southern Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding
are possible over portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday
across the Florida Keys and the southern/central Florida Peninsula.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean, 
will begin to affect the Florida Keys Tuesday, and will spread 
northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 9:58 pm

Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022


000
WTNT24 KNHC 270256
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
0300 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* AUCILLA RIVER TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* SAINT JOHNS RIVER
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
* BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* JUPITER INLET TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY
ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  83.4W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  83.4W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  83.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.8N  83.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.5N  83.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.1N  83.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N  83.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.9N  82.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.6N  82.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.3N  82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 35.0N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N  83.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 9:57 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 262341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ian, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms. While the
system has not become better organized today, environmental
conditions are expected to be sufficiently conducive for the system
to become a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Further development will become less likely by the end of the week
due to strong upper-level winds. The disturbance is forecast to
meander for the next day or two and then turn north-northwestward by
early Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 6:41 pm

Hurricane Ian Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Hurricane Ian Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 23:13:38 GMT

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 6:13 pm

Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 22:33:42 GMT

Posted on 26 September 2022 | 5:33 pm