What is the weather forecast for Harbour Island?
Currently: Mostly Cloudy: 86FCurrently in Dunmore Town, BS: 86 °F and Mostly Cloudy
9/23/2021 Forecast
High: 87 F Low: 79 F Some sun with a few showers
9/24/2021 Forecast
High: 85 F Low: 78 F A shower and thunderstorm
Harbour Island Accuweather 25 Day Forecast
What is Average Temperature for Harbour Island?
Monthly Weather Averages
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F° | |||||||||||
| 76 | 79 | 80 | 82 | 86 | 86 | 89 | 90 | 89 | 88 | 83 | 80 |
| Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F° | |||||||||||
| 65 | 68 | 66 | 69 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 78 | 74 | 75 | 73 | 68 |
| Monthly Rainfall - Inches | |||||||||||
| 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | .96 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 |
| Number of Rain Days | |||||||||||
| 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
Weather Radar for Harbour Island
Wunderground Caribbean Radar Map
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Current Hurricane Reports for the Bahamas
National Hurricane Center
NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of MexicoAtlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231753
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Sam, located about 1700 miles east-southeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.
A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located a little more than 600 miles west-northwest of
the westernmost Azores. While showers and thunderstorms remain
limited near the low, only a small increase in this activity could
result in the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone while
it moves generally southward over marginally warmer waters during
the next day or so. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
develop over the system beginning tomorrow, which should then limit
further development. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
A surface trough of low pressure has developed in association with a
large area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southeast of Bermuda. This feature is interacting with an
upper-level trough, and some tropical or subtropical development
could occur in the next day or two as this feature moves generally
north-northwestward. Strong upper-level winds should prohibit
further development by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa by the end of this weekend. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far east
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Sam are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Sam are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Papin
Posted on 23 September 2021 | 12:53 pm
Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021
000 WTNT43 KNHC 231500 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Sam Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 Overnight and this morning, the satellite structure of the tropical cyclone has been improving, with prominent curved bands, and obvious low-level cloud motions that indicate the circulation is becoming established within the convection. In particular, an SSMIS microwave pass at 0653 UTC indicated a substantial improvement in the convective structure, with a well-defined curved band wrapping three-quarters of the way around the center in both the 91- and 37-GHz channels. ASCAT-B wind retrievals at 1234 UTC also indicated a tight, well-defined circulation had formed, with peak winds of 44-kt on the north side of the vortex. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are now T3.5/55-kt from SAB and T2.5/35-kt from TAFB. In addition, the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON were at 35-kt and 43-kt respectively. Given the recent scatterometer data, the intensity has been set to 45-kt for this advisory. Thus, Tropical Depression 18 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Sam. It is noteworthy that this is the 2nd earliest formation of the 18th named storm in the Atlantic basin, moving ahead of the 2005 hurricane season, and only trailing last year. Sam continues to move to the west-northwest with an estimated motion at 280/14 kt. A prominent mid-level ridge remains entrenched to the north of the cyclone, and this feature should continue to steer Sam to the west-northwest over the next 2-3 days. Over this period, the ridge orientation actually shifts more westward ahead of the cyclone as a deep-layer trough digs in well northeast of Sam. This gradual change in the synoptic pattern should also result in a slowdown in Sam's forward motion over the next 72 hours. While the track guidance remains in good agreement over this period, larger spread begins to take shape beyond the day 3 forecast. Similar to yesterday, the ECMWF model and its ensemble mean flanks the southwest side of the guidance envelop, while the GFS is on the northeast side by day 5. These differences appear to be partially related to the mid-level ridge intensity on the western end, which could begin to be eroded by a mid-latitude trough off the eastern United States in 120-h. In addition, differences in both the size and intensity of Sam may also play a role in its ultimate track evolution. For this advisory, the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the consensus aids TCVN and TCVE, which represents a slight shift westward and a bit faster motion compared to the previous forecast. Because Sam is forecast to slow down, it remains too early to determine what impacts, direct or indirect, could be felt by the Lesser Antilles by this cyclone. The previously mentioned SSMIS microwave imagery also indicated that the low-level center has become better aligned with the mid-level vortex, perhaps a bit earlier than anticipated given the scatterometer data from last night. This improvement in structure, combined with favorable low vertical wind shear under 10 kt and warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures, argues for significant intensification. In fact, the GFS-SHIPS rapid intensification index now give Sam a 39 percent chance of a 65-kt increase over the next 72 hours, which is more than 7 times the climatological value. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised quite a bit from the prior one, especially in the short-term. The latest forecast now makes Sam a hurricane in 36 hours, and a major hurricane in 72 hours. This intensity forecast is just a shade under the latest HCCA consensus aid. Thereafter, a more gradual intensification rate is forecast. By this period it is possible that Sam could undergo hard to predict inner-core changes such as eyewall replacement cycles. In addition, the ECMWF-SHIPS suggests that the shear may also increase a little in days 4-5 which also argues for a bit slower rate of intensification for this period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 10.9N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 11.3N 40.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 11.9N 42.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 12.3N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 12.7N 46.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 13.2N 48.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 15.3N 52.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 17.4N 55.2W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Posted on 23 September 2021 | 10:00 am
Tropical Storm Sam Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 14:56:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 15:22:59 GMT
Posted on 23 September 2021 | 9:56 am
Tropical Storm Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
000
FONT13 KNHC 231456
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Posted on 23 September 2021 | 9:56 am
Summary for Tropical Storm Sam (AT3/AL182021)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SAM, THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 23 the center of Sam was located near 10.9, -38.1 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Posted on 23 September 2021 | 9:55 am
Tropical Storm Sam Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021
000 WTNT33 KNHC 231455 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sam Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SAM, THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 38.1W ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sam was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 38.1 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days, but with a gradual slowdown in forward motion. Recent sallite wind data indicates maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Sam is now forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and be near major hurricane intensity by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Posted on 23 September 2021 | 9:55 am
Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
245 WTNT23 KNHC 231454 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 37.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.3N 40.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.9N 42.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.3N 45.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.7N 46.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.2N 48.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 15.3N 52.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 17.4N 55.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 38.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Posted on 23 September 2021 | 9:54 am