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Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F°
767980828686899089888380
Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F°
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Monthly Rainfall - Inches
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643352474687

Currently: Partly Cloudy: 83F
Currently in Dunmore Town, BS: 83 °F and Partly Cloudy

8/11/2020 Forecast
High: 87 F Low: 82 F A thunderstorm in spots

8/12/2020 Forecast
High: 87 F Low: 83 F Mostly sunny

Harbour Island Accuweather 25 Day Forecast

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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 112328
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Eleven, located over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Posted on 11 August 2020 | 6:28 pm

Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics

Tropical Depression Eleven 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 20:33:48 GMT

Tropical Depression Eleven 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 21:24:57 GMT

Posted on 11 August 2020 | 3:33 pm

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020


000
WTNT41 KNHC 112032
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020
 
Visible satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data from earlier in the day
have shown that the area of low pressure NHC has been monitoring
over the tropical Atlantic has developed a less-elongated
circulation with a well-defined center.  For the most part, deep
convection has persisted with the system since about this time
yesterday, save a brief period of warming cloud tops this morning.
The low now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and
advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven with
30-kt winds, in line with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB.
 
The depression is moving westward, or 280/14 kt, to the south of a
large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic.
This pattern is expected to evolve rather quickly, with a break
developing in the ridge over the central Atlantic by 48 hours.
This change should allow the depression to begin making more
poleward progress, moving west-northwestward from 36 hours until
the end of the forecast period.  The track models are in good
agreement on this scenario, as well as the system's forward speed,
and bring the center of the cyclone near or just to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands in 4-5 days.  This first NHC forecast
lies just to the north of the multi-model consensus cluster
through day 3, out of respect for the northern-lying ECMWF model,
and then is close to HCCA on days 4 and 5.
 
Conventional satellite imagery and Saharan Air Layer analyses
suggest that the center of the depression is being shielded from
much drier air to its north and west.  However, as has been the
case for a few days, at least 15 kt of easterly shear has been
pushing deep convection to the western side of the circulation.
This shear is expected to decrease over the next day or two, which
should allow for gradual strengthening to begin by 36 hours, and a
peak in the cyclone's intensity should occur in about 3 days.  For
this period, the NHC intensity forecast is a little above HCCA and
the IVCN intensity consensus.  After that time, westerly or
southwesterly shear is forecast to develop and increase to 20-30 kt
by days 4 and 5, which is likely to induce significant weakening.
In fact, it's notable that the conditions become hostile enough that
the global models are showing the system opening up into a trough
near the northern Leeward Islands by day 5, which is a plausible
alternate scenario.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 11.7N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 12.0N  42.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 12.4N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 13.0N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 13.9N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 15.1N  51.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 16.4N  54.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 18.5N  59.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 21.0N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Posted on 11 August 2020 | 3:32 pm

Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112020)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 11 the center of Eleven was located near 11.7, -40.0 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Posted on 11 August 2020 | 3:32 pm

Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020


000
WTNT31 KNHC 112032
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 40.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 40.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  A
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to
begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday
night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Posted on 11 August 2020 | 3:32 pm

Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020


000
FONT11 KNHC 112032
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020               
2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Posted on 11 August 2020 | 3:32 pm

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020


000
WTNT21 KNHC 112032
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020
2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  40.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  40.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  39.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.0N  42.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.4N  44.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.0N  46.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.9N  49.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.1N  51.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.4N  54.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N  59.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.0N  64.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N  40.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Posted on 11 August 2020 | 3:32 pm

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