What is the weather forecast for Harbour Island?
Currently: Showers: 82FCurrently in Dunmore Town, BS: 82 °F and Showers
9/26/2022 Forecast
High: 88 F Low: 79 F Breezy with a t-storm or two
9/27/2022 Forecast
High: 90 F Low: 80 F Winds gradually subsiding
Harbour Island Accuweather 25 Day Forecast
What is Average Temperature for Harbour Island?
Monthly Weather Averages
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F° | |||||||||||
| 76 | 79 | 80 | 82 | 86 | 86 | 89 | 90 | 89 | 88 | 83 | 80 |
| Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F° | |||||||||||
| 65 | 68 | 66 | 69 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 78 | 74 | 75 | 73 | 68 |
| Monthly Rainfall - Inches | |||||||||||
| 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | .96 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 |
| Number of Rain Days | |||||||||||
| 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
Weather Radar for Harbour Island
Wunderground Caribbean Radar Map
Real Time GOES Imagery - Definitive Weather Satellite Views of the Bahamas and Caribbean:
Space, Science & Engineering's Interactive Geostationary Real Time Satellite Images
Current Hurricane Reports for the Bahamas
National Hurricane Center
NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of MexicoLocal Statement for Jacksonville, FL
Issued at 1132 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:32 pm
Local Statement for Key West, FL
Issued at 1129 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:29 pm
Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued at 1123 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:23 pm
Local Statement for Melbourne, FL
Issued at 1121 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:21 pm
Hurricane Ian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 27 Sep 2022 03:17:51 GMT
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:17 pm
Local Statement for Miami, FL
Issued at 1116 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:16 pm
Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL
Issued at 1109 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 /1009 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022/
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:09 pm
Hurricane Ian Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Sep 2022 03:01:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Sep 2022 03:23:17 GMT
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 10:01 pm
Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
000 WTNT44 KNHC 270258 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Ian continues to become better organized on satellite images with intense deep convection in its Central Dense Overcast and numerous surrounding banding features. The overall cloud pattern is quite symmetric with well-defined upper-level outflow. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure is falling, and the intensity is increased to 90 kt based on a recently reported 700 mb flight-level wind of 101 kt from the Air Force plane. This is also in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB. Aside from its relatively brief time passing over western Cuba, Ian will be moving over waters of very high oceanic heat content during the next couple of days. The various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show a significant probability of RI and this is reflected in the short-term official intensity forecast. However, the SHIPS guidance, which is based on global model predictions, indicates that a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a substantially drying of low- to mid-level air will begin in 24-36 hours. The NHC forecast, like the previous one, shows strengthening to Category 4 intensity in a day or so, followed by gradual weakening. However, Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus predictions. Ian continues its north-northwestward trek at about 340/11 kt. The hurricane is expected to move north-northwestward to northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. After around 36 hours, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, since there is considerable divergence of the track models in the 2-3 day time frame. The guidance also shows considerable slowing of the forward speed, due to a weakening of the steering currents, when Ian approaches the west coast of Florida. This slower forward motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The official track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning overnight and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread across western Cuba through Tuesday. This will likely produce instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. 5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South Florida Tuesday, spreading into central and northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding, including significant, prolonged river flooding, is likely across Central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 21.3N 83.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 9:58 pm
Summary for Hurricane Ian (AT4/AL092022)
...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 the center of Ian was located near 21.3, -83.4 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 9:58 pm
Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022
000
FONT14 KNHC 270257
PWSAT4
HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0300 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19)
FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 9(21)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 9(25)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 9(26)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9)
GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) 8(37)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 20(36) 8(44)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 8(26)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 18(36) 8(44)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 34(46) 18(64) 4(68)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 15(28) 3(31)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 2(17)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 24(30) 17(47) 5(52)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 2(16)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 35(51) 16(67) 4(71)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 15(32) 3(35)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 3(20)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 32(43) 17(60) 4(64)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 10(26) 2(28)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 36(61) 12(73) 2(75)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 24(30) 8(38) 2(40)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) 1(18)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) 36(60) 10(70) 2(72)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 26(30) 6(36) 1(37)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) 1(21)
THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 33(43) 30(73) 8(81) 2(83)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 31(44) 7(51) 1(52)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 2(26) X(26)
ORLANDO FL 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 31(42) 27(69) 7(76) 1(77)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 28(40) 4(44) 1(45)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 2(23) X(23)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 27(46) 24(70) 6(76) 1(77)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 22(27) 5(32) X(32)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14)
PATRICK AFB 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 27(46) 24(70) 7(77) X(77)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 22(27) 5(32) 1(33)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 25(46) 18(64) 5(69) 1(70)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 4(21) X(21)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
W PALM BEACH 34 1 4( 5) 17(22) 16(38) 15(53) 3(56) 1(57)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 4( 6) 18(24) 11(35) 12(47) 3(50) 1(51)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MIAMI FL 34 2 2( 4) 9(13) 10(23) 12(35) 2(37) 1(38)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 3( 5) 8(13) 9(22) 11(33) 2(35) X(35)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
MARATHON FL 34 4 29(33) 14(47) 3(50) 5(55) 2(57) X(57)
MARATHON FL 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
KEY WEST FL 34 12 55(67) 8(75) 2(77) 2(79) 1(80) 1(81)
KEY WEST FL 50 1 12(13) 6(19) 2(21) X(21) 1(22) X(22)
KEY WEST FL 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NAPLES FL 34 2 34(36) 42(78) 7(85) 4(89) 1(90) X(90)
NAPLES FL 50 X 3( 3) 26(29) 11(40) 5(45) 2(47) X(47)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19)
FT MYERS FL 34 1 8( 9) 52(61) 13(74) 7(81) 2(83) X(83)
FT MYERS FL 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 18(34) 9(43) 2(45) 1(46)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21)
VENICE FL 34 2 16(18) 62(80) 13(93) 3(96) 2(98) X(98)
VENICE FL 50 X 1( 1) 40(41) 29(70) 8(78) 3(81) X(81)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 15(15) 27(42) 9(51) 3(54) X(54)
TAMPA FL 34 X 6( 6) 49(55) 28(83) 11(94) 2(96) X(96)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 15(15) 34(49) 19(68) 5(73) 1(74)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 18(45) 4(49) X(49)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 31(54) 23(77) 6(83) 1(84)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 25(44) 8(52) 2(54)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 5(31) 1(32)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 23(30) 11(41) 2(43)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 26(36) 10(46) 2(48)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 2(18)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 19(40) 8(48) 1(49)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 2(17)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 18(32) 20(52) 4(56) 1(57)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 6(21) 1(22)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 17(29) 6(35) 2(37)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 6(16) 1(17)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 3(15)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 10(18) 4(22) X(22)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
COZUMEL MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 13(26) 3(29) 1(30)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 24 2(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HAVANA 34 80 9(89) 1(90) X(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91)
HAVANA 50 16 10(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27)
HAVANA 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLE OF PINES 50 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 1(30)
ISLE OF PINES 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CIENFUEGOS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 9:58 pm
Hurricane Ian Public Advisory Number 16
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 270257 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa * Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas * Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West * Flamingo to Englewood A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West * Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay * Aucilla River to Anclote River * Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line * Saint Johns River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River * Bonita Beach to Englewood A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Lake Okeechobee * North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass * Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 83.4 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move near or over western Cuba overnight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba, and remain a major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). An amateur radio operator recently reported that an automated weather station at Cayo Largo, Cuba measured a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) during the last couple of hours. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay...5-10 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft * Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft * Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor... 4-7 ft * Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including St. Johns River...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay...2-4 ft * Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft * Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft * Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early Tuesday. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba beginning tonight. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by Tuesday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle Florida Keys on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday: * Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches; these rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. * Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches * Coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida: 4 to 6 inches with local maxima up to 10 inches. * Central West Florida: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to 20 inches. * Northeast Florida: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches. * Remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 4 to 8 inches. Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding, and prolonged significant river flooding is likely mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina. Flash and urban flooding is also possible with rainfall across southern Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding are possible over portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday across the Florida Keys and the southern/central Florida Peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean, will begin to affect the Florida Keys Tuesday, and will spread northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 9:58 pm
Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022
000 WTNT24 KNHC 270256 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 0300 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA * ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * DRY TORTUGAS A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO * TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS * LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY * AUCILLA RIVER TO ANCLOTE RIVER * ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * SAINT JOHNS RIVER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER * BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS * JUPITER INLET TO ALTAMAHA SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 83.4W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 83.4W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 9:57 pm
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 262341
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ian, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms. While the
system has not become better organized today, environmental
conditions are expected to be sufficiently conducive for the system
to become a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Further development will become less likely by the end of the week
due to strong upper-level winds. The disturbance is forecast to
meander for the next day or two and then turn north-northwestward by
early Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 6:41 pm
Hurricane Ian Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 23:13:38 GMT
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 6:13 pm
Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 22:33:42 GMT
Posted on 26 September 2022 | 5:33 pm