Harbour Island Weather
Average Weather Information
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F° |
| 76 | 79 | 80 | 82 | 86 | 86 | 89 | 90 | 89 | 88 | 83 | 80 |
| Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F° |
| 65 | 68 | 66 | 69 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 78 | 74 | 75 | 73 | 68 |
| Monthly Rainfall - Inches |
| 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | .96 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 |
| Number of Rain Days |
| 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
Currently: Mostly Sunny: 84F
Currently in Dunmore Town, BS: 84 °F and Mostly Sunny
9/17/2019 Forecast
High: 86 F Low: 80 F Partly sunny 
9/18/2019 Forecast
High: 85 F Low: 79 F A thunderstorm in the area 
Harbour Island Accuweather 25 Day Forecast
Intellicast Caribbean Radar Map
Real Time GOES Imagery - Definitive Weather Satellite Views of the Bahamas and Caribbean:
GOES-East - Regional sector view: Caribbean
GOES-East Image Viewer
Sea Surface Temperature
Space, Science & Engineering's Interactive Geostationary Real Time Satellite Images
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Issued at 415 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 4:15 pm
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:49:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:49:34 GMT
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:49 pm
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019
754
WTNT44 KNHC 172046
TCDAT4
Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019
Humberto's satellite appearance has improved somewhat since the
previous advisory, with the eye clearing out and becoming more
distinct. This has resulted in satellite subjective intensity
estimates increasing to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, with
objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS increasing to T5.9/112 kt.
However, during the past 36 h or so, the satellite estimates have
been running higher than the actual surface winds by about 10-15
percent. A 1425Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 72 kt
in the southeastern eyewall, which is significant given that the
scatterometer is well undersampling the actual peak winds due to the
25-km footprint of the instrument. The intensity has been increased
to 90 kt based on the clearing and warming of the eye and allowing
for some overestimation by the satellite agencies. The scatterometer
wind data also showed that Humberto's wind field has expanded more
since the earlier recon wind data, thus some additional adjustments
were made to all of the wind radii in this advisory.
Humberto continues to move east-northeastward or 075/10 kt. The
large hurricane remains on track, and the latest NHC model guidance
remains tightly packed around the previous advisory track. Thus, no
significant changes were made to the previous forecast track through
48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, however, the models are now in
better agreement on Humberto accelerating and moving faster toward
the northeast through 96 hours as an extratropical cyclone, followed
by a turn toward the east-northeast on day 5. The official forecast
track is based on a blend of the consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and
FSSE, and shows the center of Humberto passing just to the northwest
and north of Bermuda between 24-36 hours or late Wednesday night.
The latest SHIPS intensity guidance shows near 30 kt of deep-layer
vertical shear allegedly affecting Humberto, which obviously is a
significant overestimate based on the presence of a well-defined eye
and smooth CDO feature in visible satellite imagery. Given the
likely overestimation of the shear values, Humberto is expected to
strengthen to major hurricane status in the next 24 h. Thereafter,
Humberto is forecast to steadily weaken due to cold upwelling as the
hurricane moves over cooler waters, and into an environment
consisting of very strong shear exceeding 40-50 kt and more stable,
drier air. However, the usual rate of weakening due to the strong
shear conditions is expected to be tempered by the increasing
baroclinic forcing in the right-rear entrance region of a strong
jetstream wind maximum. The NHC intensity closely follows a blend of
the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.
Key Messages:
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Wednesday night and
Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected by
Wednesday afternoon. Residents there should follow advice given by
local officials.
2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding Wednesday night and Thursday along the southern coast of
Bermuda.
3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 31.0N 72.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 31.5N 70.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 32.6N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 37.4N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 41.5N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 43.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1800Z 46.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:46 pm
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
000
FONT14 KNHC 172042
PWSAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) X(23)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BERMUDA 34 1 50(51) 41(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
BERMUDA 50 X 4( 4) 40(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:42 pm
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019
000
WTNT34 KNHC 172042
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019
...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE LARGE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER
TO BERMUDA...
...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 72.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 72.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion through
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to
pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or
on Wednesday.
Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected.
SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.
Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge and wave setup could raise water levels by
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern
coast of Bermuda.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:42 pm
...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE LARGE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER TO BERMUDA... ...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 17
the center of Humberto was located near 31.0, -72.3
with movement ENE at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 960 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:42 pm
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
000
WTNT24 KNHC 172041
TCMAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 72.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 72.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 72.9W
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.5N 57.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 210NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 43.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 46.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 72.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:41 pm
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:36:09 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:36:09 GMT
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:36 pm
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019
000
WTNT45 KNHC 172034
TCDAT5
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019
The organization of the depression has changed little today. Bands
of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern
portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of
the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast
reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to
move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a
generally low vertical wind shear environment. These factors favor
strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the
depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane
before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.
The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move
west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the
south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther
south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the
previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous
official foreast was needed.
Key Messages:
1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 13.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:34 pm
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:34:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:34:24 GMT
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:34 pm
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
243
FONT15 KNHC 172034
PWSAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 2(29)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 1(33)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 1(25)
SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10)
SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 1(23)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 1(31)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:34 pm
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 17
the center of Ten was located near 13.4, -45.6
with movement WNW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:34 pm
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019
000
WTNT35 KNHC 172034
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 45.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 45.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The
system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it moves near the
northern Leeward Islands.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:34 pm
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
000
WTNT25 KNHC 172033
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 45.6W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 45.6W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 45.2W
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 45.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:33 pm
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019
000
WTNT41 KNHC 172033
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019
Shortly after the earlier NHC Special Advisory, the cyclone quickly
intensified just before it made landfall near Freeport, Texas
around 1800 UTC. A National Ocean Service observing site near
Freeport, Texas, reported sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to
41 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1005.6 mb. A Weatherflow station
at Surfside Beach also measured sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust
to 44 kt. The advisory intensity is set at 35 kt based on recent
Doppler velocities within some of the rain bands that are still
offshore.
Imelda joins a list of several systems in the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico that formed and intensified very near the Texas coast. Other
recent examples include Allison in 2001 and Humberto in 2007.
Thankfully, in this case Imelda made landfall before significant
strengthening could occur. Now that the center is moving inland,
gradual weakening is expected. It cannot be stressed enough,
however, that the primary threat from Imelda remains very heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding that will spread
northward into eastern Texas and portions of western Louisiana
during the next day or so.
Imelda is moving northward at about 6 kt. The cyclone should
continue to move slowly northward to north-northwestward around the
western side of a mid-level ridge over the Tennessee Valley until
dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The updated NHC track
forecast has been nudged eastward but remains near the center of the
tightly clustered track guidance.
Key Messages:
1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 29.3N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 30.1N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1800Z 30.8N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/0600Z 31.4N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 19/1800Z 32.1N 95.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:33 pm
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
000
FONT11 KNHC 172032
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
KOUNTZE TX 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GALVESTON TX 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
HOUSTON TX 34 13 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
FREEPORT TX 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:32 pm
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019
000
WTNT31 KNHC 172032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO SPREAD
INLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF GALVESTON TEXAS
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent to Port Bolivar
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 95.3 West. Imelda is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north-
northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Imelda will continue to move
farther inland across eastern Texas tonight and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Imelda is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as it moves
farther inland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center over water. A wind gust to
40 mph (65 km/h) was recently reported in Galveston, Texas.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the
Houston and Galveston areas. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with
isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of
southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area this afternoon and evening.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:32 pm
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
000
WTNT21 KNHC 172031
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TO PORT BOLIVAR
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 95.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 95.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 95.3W
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.1N 95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.8N 95.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.4N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 32.1N 95.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 95.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 3:31 pm
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17
the center of Imelda was located near 29.3, -95.3
with movement N at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 1:27 pm
000
ABNT20 KNHC 171747
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located about 500 miles west of Bermuda, on Tropical
Depression Ten, located more than 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Imelda, located
near Freeport, Texas.
A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Some gradual development will be possible over the
weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Imelda are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Imelda are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Posted on 17 September 2019 | 12:47 pm
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